NIGER

President Tandja (R) with the French leader Sarkozy, defies the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

After a successful self succession gambit, ECOWAS faces agonising decision on what to do with Niger's President Tandja. What becomes of Niger Republic, and what to do with Mamadou Tandja, its president, have become a major headache for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) which Tandja, ironically, once led as chairman. Last October ECOWAS suspended Niger for refusing to postpone a legislative election against the regional bloc's advice for a delay to allow political dialogue in the wake of a controversial referendum that extended the president's term of office. But the ECOWAS action was too little too late.

Tandja had in August won a referendum to end term limit to enable him remain in power past December 2009, an action that has polarised his country's political landscape and worsened its economic woes.

Last September, ECOWAS Parliament, the legislative arm of the sub regional grouping urged the African Union (AU), ECOWAS Commission and the international community, especially the United Nations, the European Union (EU), the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom to maintain pressure on the President of Niger to force him drop his ambition for another term. The parliament also raised an ad-hoc committee to begin a sensitisation mission within and outside the sub-region to push for the restoration of constitutionalism in Nigeria's northern neighbour, and, for good measure, called for an urgent summit of ECOWAS Heads of State and Government on the issue.

Prior to Tandja's referendum, ECOWAS had sent a team to Niger to protest the planned action and thereafter threatened the country with sanctions or suspension if the referendum held. But now, Niger presents a test-case on how far diplomacy alone can go in stemming the tide of west African leaders hoping to re-write their country's constitution to fulfill their ambition to succeed themselves in office.

In response to a question on the block's reaction to another president-for-life, the late Conte of Guinea-Conakry, ECOWAS Commission President Dr. Muhammad Ibn Chambas had told Africa Today magazine in Abuja, Nigeria that the regional bloc had no business removing elected heads of states.

He said then: "It's not the business of ECOWAS to go and remove heads of state, especially if they had been elected as was the case of Conte, unfortunate as the case of Guinea might have been."

Ironically, reliance on diplomacy alone and failure to explore other options, including economic and, even, military, failed ECOWAS on Guinea Conakry; and, may yet do so again in Niger's case.

At present, Niger is banking on oil exploration and gold mining to boost its fortunes. It has struck a $5 billion deal with Chinese state-owned oil company CNPC to produce oil and build a refinery. Also, the Islamic Development Bank has pledged over $236 million for a hydropower project. A planned multi-billion dollar pipeline across the Sahara is also due to pass through Niger.

But key to Tandja's confidence is the reaction of France, whose president visited Niger at the same time that Tandja unveiled his intention. Soon after that visit, state nuclear giant Areva commenced building a 1.2 billion euro ($1.69 billion) uranium mine.

Put bluntly, the French have been sending mixed messages. This derives from the importance of Niger, which it relies on for its energy security. Niger is an important source of uranium for its nuclear power and ultimately electricity.

Though President Nicolas Sarkozy and his foreign minister both subsequently publicly condemned Tandja's self-succession bid, there was so much difference between French public policy and private messages, underscoring how France's Africa policy has not changed despite vows by Sarkozy to reform it after years of accusations that France puts its own economic interests before rights and democracy in its former colonies.

Historically a gateway between the north and sub-Saharan Africa , Niger came under French rule in the late 1890s. It endured an austere military rule for much of its post-independence history and is rated by the UN as one of the world's least-developed nations.

A vast, arid and drought-prone state on the edge of the Sahara desert, Niger sometimes struggles to feed its people. Its main export, uranium, is prone to price fluctuation and agriculture is threatened by desertification. The country has one of the lowest literacy rates in the world, with less than a third of its population literate. Its health system is also basic and disease is widespread. Infant mortality rate is 129 per 1,000 live births.

Niger banned centuries-old practice of slavery in 2003. But anti-slavery organisations say thousands of people still live in subjugation.

A retired army colonel, Tandja was born in 1938 in Maine Soroa, 1,400km (870 miles) east of the capital, Niamey, of an Arab father and a Kanuri mother; raised in a family of shepherds, and has a reputation as a pragmatist. He was elected to power in December 1999 following what the international community called "a fair and transparent democratic electoral process" just eight months after the country's then recent military takeover.

He was re-elected in 2004, a first in Niger and a development that was then touted as proof of Niger's "democratic maturity".

But before that double victory, Tandja had already had a taste of power. In 1974 he took part in Niger's first military coup, ousting President Hamani Diori. He was named interior minister and also served as an ambassador for many years.

In 2005 that Tandja's government experienced its first serious social crisis. Locust attacks and poor rainfall led to large-scale protests organised by civil society groups and opposition parties.

Civil society groups denounced hikes in the prices of basic commodities like sugar, milk and wheat flower. Opposition parties accused government of "unprecedented and rampant corruption".

The government was heavily criticised for doing too little to prevent the failed harvests which led to acute food shortages, affecting some 3.5 million people. And contrary to expectation, the government rejected calls for free distribution of food and instead subsidised the cost of staple foods.

However, the poorest said they still could not afford to buy enough to stave off hunger. Journalists who reported on the scale of the problems were harassed. And the president launched a scathing attack on UN aid agencies, accusing them of exaggerating the scale of the problems in order to get donor funds.

He also accused opposition parties of trying to gain political mileage out of the problems.

The Nigerien opposition, however, accused him of staging a coup. And now with President Tandja already operating a new constitution for his country and consolidating his successful self-succession gambit, can ECOWAS' diplomatic approach to Niger's problems still be tenable?